Lagos may record up to 39,000 cases of the coronavirus if good social distancing is not adhered to, Commissioner for Health, Prof. Akin Abayomi, said on Friday.
Abayomi made this known while giving the state’s analysis of the coronavirus update.
“Our Mathematical modelling shows that worst-case scenario we might have 39, 000 cases in Lagos State; however, if we practice good social distancing, we can limit that to about 13,000,” he said.
Abayomi said adding social distancing to active constant tracing would help to reduce the cases further, noting that the figure was minimal compared to numbers of cases in other parts of the world.
“The figures may seem alarming at this point, but this is just to emphasise the importance to the Lagos community to follow the instructions of the incidence commander to ensure they practice good social distancing,” he said.
“Social distancing is the key to bring the outbreak under control, because that way, we are not giving the virus the opportunity to spread from person to person.”
The commissioner said the strategies of containment and social distancing utilised by the state was yielding positive results, adding that four weeks after the first case was recorded, it had been able to minimise the spread.
Abayomi said that if the state government discovered that the public was not adhering to its social distancing directives, the state council would meet and might have to make some other pronouncements.
According to him, out of the 44 confirmed cases in the state, 70 per cent were male, while 30 per cent were female, adding that 84 per cent of the imported cases were Nigerians.
He noted that most of the cases were local transmission that had contact with people that had travelled to high-risk countries, with some cases that they couldn’t trace how they contracted the virus.
Speaking on the new confirmed cases in the state, he said that seven of the cases were detected among 51 crew members of an oil and gas vessel.
“We have a situation at the Seme Border; 16 students who are trying to enter Nigeria, what they are doing outside the border, we do not know,” the commissioner said.
He said that the team would meet with the immigration service at the border, and would evacuate the students based on the governor’s order to one of the medical facilities in the state.
The commissioner said that the students would be evaluated and tested to assess their risk level.