Saad Al-Kaabi, Qatar’s minister of energy, has warned that global crude oil prices could surge to as high as $150 per barrel within a few weeks if vessels remain unable to move through the Strait of Hormuz.
Al-Kaabi made the projection during an interview with the Financial Times on Friday, amid rising tensions in the Middle East that have disrupted maritime activities in the region.
The situation escalated on March 2 when several major shipping companies suspended operations through the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal due to increasing security threats following US and Israeli strikes on Iran.
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow channel linking the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, serves as the primary sea route used by Gulf nations to transport oil and gas to international markets. Because of its strategic importance, any disruption to traffic through the waterway has immediate implications for global energy supply.
Speaking on the possible impact of the blockade, Al-Kaabi said the oil market could experience serious volatility if tankers and cargo vessels continue to avoid the route.
He stated that crude prices “could reach $150 a barrel within two to three weeks if tankers and other vessels remain unable to pass through the strategic waterway.”
The minister also cautioned that natural gas prices could spike significantly if the supply disruption continues. According to him, gas prices may rise to about $40 per metric million British thermal units (MMBtu) — nearly four times higher than pre-conflict levels.
Al-Kaabi further warned that prolonged instability could force energy exporters in the Gulf region to declare force majeure, which would allow them to suspend contractual supply obligations due to circumstances beyond their control.
“Everybody that has not called for force majeure we expect will do so in the next few days that this continues. All exporters in the Gulf region will have to call force majeure,” he said.
He added, “If they don’t, they are at some point going to pay the liability for that legally, and that’s their choice.”
Earlier this month, QatarEnergy — the country’s state-owned energy firm — announced that it had suspended liquefied natural gas (LNG) production after Iranian military attacks targeted some of its operational facilities.
Providing an update on the situation, Al-Kaabi said authorities are still evaluating the damage caused by the attack.
“We don’t yet know the extent of the damage, as it is currently still being assessed. It is not clear yet how long it will take to repair,” he said.
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He added that even if hostilities end immediately, restoring normal LNG export operations could take weeks or even months due to logistical disruptions.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has also been affected by the regional conflict. Saudi Aramco temporarily shut down its Ras Tanura refinery after debris from an Iranian drone attack sparked a fire at the facility.
The disruptions in global energy supply have already begun affecting fuel prices in Nigeria.
On March 5, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited raised petrol pump prices at its stations to N933 per litre in Lagos and N960 per litre in Abuja.
The adjustment followed a separate price increase by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which raised its ex-gantry petrol price from N774 to N874 per litre.